ECONOMY: FNB Economics Weekly
Recent Western Cape Business News
·SA: It has been a busy week on the data front, with several indicators showing that a recession has been averted, despite retail trade sales for June expanding just 1.7% y/y from 4.5% in May.
· SSA: Growth concerns have resulted in two central banks in Southern Africa are moving towards accommodative monetary policy. The Bank of Botswana cut policy rates while the Bank of Namibia opted to keep rates unchanged. Both banks noted that they are concerned about the growth outlook in their respective countries.
·Global: US CPI decelerated to 0.8% y/y in July due to falling energy prices while Eurozone and UK CPI edged higher to 0.2% and 0.6% respectively.
The Week Ahead
Attention will fall on the July inflation survey due for release on Wednesday. Our expectation of a moderation in food and transport prices should have translated into a deceleration of headline inflation to 6.0% y/y in July from 6.3% y/y in June . Food prices, based on our estimates, rose 10.7% y/y, slightly slower than the 11.0% recorded in June due to a moderation in vegetable prices. Petrol price hikes were smaller in July thanks to a stronger exchange rates and a slight decline in the oil price. As a result, we expect the transport cost to have risen 2.5% y/y in July from 3.3% in June. Other data due for release are the leading indicator and the PPI survey.
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