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FINANCE: Inflation Expectations Unchanged

 



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The average inflation expectation for 2012 remained unchanged at 6.1% during 2012Q1. This marks the second consecutive quarter that inflation for 2012 is forecast to average above the 6% upper target limit, according to the latest survey by Stellenbosch's BER.

Respondents again raised their 2013 inflation forecast by 0.1 percentage point (%pt) to 6.1%.

On average, respondents expect inflation to linger at 6.1% in 2012 and 2013, before easing to 6.0% during 2014.

Regarding the direction of change to expectations, the different social groups had diverging views on headline CPI for 2012. Analysts are the only group that raised their inflation forecast and now project a breach of the 6.0% target ceiling. Analysts foresee inflation moderating from 6.2% in 2012 to 5.6% during 2013, before settling on 5.5% in 2014.

Business people left their view on 2012 inflation unchanged at 6.2%. Of all the groups, they foresee headline CPI to reach the highest level, attaining 6.5% in both 2013 (up from 6.3% previously) and 2014.

Trade unions, on the other hand, lowered their 2012 inflation estimate from 6.3% to 6.0%, but raised the projection for 2013 from 6.1% to 6.2%. Inflation is then expected to moderate to 6.0% during 2014.

Measuring 6.2%, household inflation expectations for 2012 were also above the target ceiling during 2012Q1.

On average, respondents expect inflation to average 6.2% over the next five years, largely unchanged from the 6.3% recorded in 2011Q4.

Including households, the average forecast for CPI headline inflation by all social groups is 6.2% for 2012.


 
 
 
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